2012 Forecast for Emerging and Next-Generation Intelligent Transportation Systems

2011 was another excellent year for ITS innovation, with significant advancements along multiple market segments, and most indicators point to similar advancements for 2012. The following provides a 12-month overview for Next-Gen ITS in 2012. The summary is a result of multiple assessments, including analysis of market patterns, technology relationships and dependencies, adoptability and overall market timing with regards to emerging solutions and technologies. As always, your thoughts are welcomed and encouraged.

NEW ENTRIES FOR 2012
2012 will see a number of new entries for Next-Gen ITS technologies and solutions. Some of the following may have been born in 2011, or were initially planned and/or identified for continued development 2011, yet 2012 will mark the first real significant showing of these technologies or represent the point at which these technologies and solutions become pervasive.

New Data and Information API’s from the Automotive Industry – The rapidly expanding telematics and vehicle “infotainment” industry, coupled with continued explosive growth of the commercial connected vehicle will see the emergence of new data streams, provided by the auto industry, and openly accessible to the developer community. The open data streams will facilitate the development of additional applications and services, and represent the industry’s first extensive, real-time, anonymized data set sourced from traditional passenger vehicles. We will also continue to see enhanced partnering between the automotive industry and the big software and computing companies such as Microsoft’s partnerships with Ford and Toyota, as Detroit moves to the cloud.

Smartphone Data Integration for System Operations – To date, mobile data sources such as smartphone GPS and Bluetooth data have been primarily utilized for “passive” system use, such as traveler information systems like DMS travel times. 2012 will see the expanded use of public and private data sources for “active” systems operations, where public safety is involved (legal issues). The new data sources will see the first integration with signal systems and freeway management systems for “active” support of systems such as variable speed limits, ramp metering and traffic signal operations. This new use of sourced data will require significant regulatory and policy assessments, however, for private data to make the next step, it will need to be approved for more critical uses.

Transportation Data and Information Management – A relatively new staffing position within operating entities will begin to take shape in 2012. This new position will be responsible for the aggregation, processing, storage and management of all transportation data and information. As data availability and data-reliant services explode, agencies will be faced with increasing internal needs with regards to architecting and managing their transportation data and information systems. Agencies will need to begin considering outsourcing, or staffing this role internally. 2012 will show the initial signs of this trend starting to emerge, as “big data” hits both transportation as well as the enterprise.

Private Data Tools and Services – 2012 will also see new market segment growth in response to the growing need for tools and applications that utilize private data sources. Agencies purchasing private data will be looking to maximize the functional value of the costs associated with the procurement of the private data. This will include stand-alone planning and analytical tools, as well as operational support applications.

CONTINUED GROWTH FOR 2012
A number of next-gen ITS technologies and solutions that emerged in 2011 will see further incubation and in some cases, explosive growth in 2012. The following provides a brief overview of what is expected for the coming year.

DATA
Next-Gen Data – Next-Gen Data, including Bluetooth and GPS-based (smartphone) data will continue to take root and expand within the ITS community, as well as provide data and information for the development of Next-Gen ITS. Both public agencies and private vendors will continue to aggregate and integrate mobile, real-time data with current and next-gen ITS. The next 12 months will see increased focus on the big data “piñata”, as both public and private entities come to the realization that the big data “grab” is on, with ownership, usage rights and data openness hanging in the balance. Data coverage and densities will continue to expand at rapid pace, facilitating the emergence of higher-resolution Next-Gen ITS services such as arterial travel-time information systems. Privately sourced data will also see increased use for transportation planning purposes. “Big Data” applications and algorithms will also gain in importance of the next 12 months.

Data Liberation Front – The “Open Data” movement will continue to expand, facilitating continued citizen engagement and establishing fertile ground for the development of applications and solutions generated from the “hive-mind”. “Open Data” initiatives will continue to expand world-wide as we will see continued democratization of many transportation-related data resources. However, some new challenges will also confront the data liberation movement, including Next-Gen issues such as maintenance of crowdsourced applications and resistance from traditional vendors to openly release data that was traditionally private (controlled) under existing contractual agreements.

TRAVELER INFORMATION
Next-Gen ATIS – Next-gen traveler information systems will also continue to emerge and mature in 2012. The FHWA’s EnableATIS program, coupled with private industry advancements based on location and mobile technologies, will make 2012 a pivotal year for Next-Gen AITS applications and solutions. As previously noted, Context-Aware, location based applications will begin to firmly take root, and fortify earlier versions of GPS-based traveler information applications. Peer-to-Peer (P2P) data and information exchange, coupled with social analytics and integration data and information from other related ecosystems will continue to enhance the resolution of data collected and information disseminated.

Context-aware, Location-based Services – Next-gen ITS will continue to pivot from earlier technologies and methodologies, and continue migration to mobile, user-based data and information systems, tailored to each individual users (traveler) unique requirements. Traveler information based on individual user-preferences, sentiment analysis, user-history and hyper-local environmental conditions will continue to mature. Geo-tagged, location-based traveler information will also emerge, allowing the provision of traveler information to be pinned (virtually reside) at specific coordinates, and be ingested by those passing through/near those coordinates.

Predictive Analytics and Forecasting – Predictive analytics and forecasting will move to center stage in 2012. Coupled with context-aware solutions, predictive analytics and forecasting will enable further development of user-unique traffic and traveler information systems. Predictive analytics will be enhanced with the addition of social engineering and behavioral management principles, in addition to the arrival of continuously enriched real-time data sets, robust data histograms and advanced modeling and analytics. Embedded predictive analytics will also be implemented in conjunction with gaming mechanics to generate user recommendations that are best suited holistically for the overall efficiency of the transportation network, thus optimizing operational efficiencies.

CONNECTED VEHICLE
Connected Vehicle Research and Testing – 2012 will see significant development of the Connected Vehicle program, from the Government’s perspective, including the official launch of the Safety Model Deployment project in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Next-gen ITS initiatives including AERIS and EnableATIS will continue to create the foundation for the pending decisions to be rendered by NHTSA in 2013/2014, as well as continue to frame the technological environment for numerous Next-gen ITS solutions. 2012 will also include further research and advanced development of Dynamic Mobility Applications, which will closely integrate with Context-aware, location-based applications and the Connected Vehicle program. Networking protocols and standards (architectures), both in-vehicle and interfacing with vehicles, will also begin to take shape in 2012.

Smartphone Integration with the Vehicle – 2012 will see enhanced refinement and resolution with regards to the integration of the vehicle and smartphone, continuing migration towards a seamless user (traveler) experience. The OBD-II and the Smartphone’s wireless (Bluetooth) and hardwired ports will be better defined and optimized. The automotive industry will continue to rapidly deploy the commercial infotainment market sector, which will include traveler information and other overlapping ITS-related services via deeper integration with smartphone applications and enhanced embedded vehicle data and information systems. 2012 will also continue to identify, define and refine data and information architecture for the automobile. Ethernet and HTML5 will likely lead the way in the automobile protocol stack.

TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Systems Integration – 2012 will continue the push towards the integration of ITS. The Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Systems Initiative will continue to develop and disseminate guidance to assist local agencies with implementing integrated corridors. Demonstration and evaluation of the Pioneer Sites will continue through 2012 (and into 2013). Next-Gen ITS will also continue a slow but assured march towards the integration of existing “stove-piped” transportation systems. Cloud-based applications will facilitate the transition from siloed, stand-alone transportation systems, to fully-fused and homogenous operating systems (further down the road). A key facilitator will reside in the development of applications that interface and integrate with existing instrumented stand-alone systems. The new applications will eventually include multimodal predictive analytics and multimodal management and decision support systems. We will also begin to see the emergence of complex adaptive systems begin to emerge during the initial fusion of systems.

Next-Gen Parking Systems – 2011 saw the continued testing and development of a number of next-gen parking systems throughout the Country. 2012 will see the mainstreaming of new technologies and applications for next-gen parking management. This will include refinement of congestion-pricing schema, further integration with personal mobile devices, as well as integration of parking management systems with adjacent traffic management systems.

LEGISLATIVE
Reauthorization – The next transportation bill is expected to pass before the summer of 2012. We’ve heard this a few times before, and there are no guarantees that existing legislation gets extended once again, but most key indicators point to something getting done in Q2 or Q3 of 2012. Of course, the final version of the Bill will greatly impact ITS program development and subsequently steer the direction of many Next-Gen ITS solutions for the coming years. Reauthorization will build around the four Surface Transportation Safety Bills, including S.1953, the Research and Innovative Technology Administration Reauthorization Act of 2011, which extends funding for RITA, that were introduced in December of 2011.

Distracted Driving – 2012 will be a critical year for the continued discussion, definition and legislating of the distracted driving issue. NTSB’s call to ban the use of all electronic devices, although greatly impactful, will ultimately get down to decisions made at the state level. The initial call by the NTSB is already receiving a great deal of push back from the scientific and technology communities, as well as the safety community with regards to actual data supporting the NTSB claims.

COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Web-based (Cloud) Solutions – Probably the largest IT-related influencer in 2012 will be the continued movement of central networking and systems to the cloud, as agencies and businesses discover the tremendous cost savings and benefits associated with cloud-based services. Maturing consumer and enterprise services such as Amazon’s EC2 and Microsoft Azure are making it painless and attractive, both fiscally and technically. Current lean economic conditions, coupled with vendor-based goals for developing cloud-based applications will facilitate the initial transitions. Cloud-streaming and cloud-processing will also enrich functional (processing) capabilities at the mobile-user level.

Wireless – 2012 will continue with the wide-scale deployment of so called “4G” cellular services. Naming and specification criteria aside, the bottom line will be increased commercial wireless bandwidths. Also, Wi-Fi will begin initial migration to newer 802.11 protocols, including 802.11ac and 802.11ad. Near Field Communications (NFC) will continue to be demonstrated for next-gen ITS solutions in 2012.

BEST OF THE REST FOR 2012
Next-Gen Policy – 2012 will increase dependencies on policy makers with regards to implementing, operating and maintaining the aforementioned next-gen ITS solutions. In addition to new data management policies, substantial regulatory modeling and framework will be required to address new connected vehicle technologies as well as utilization of private data sources for systems where public safety is concerned.

Social Tools – As previously noted, 2012 will see continued implementation of commercial peer-to-peer (traveler) solutions and applications. These user-based data and information systems (social) will mature in 2012 to include advanced behavioral management strategies, as well as potentially integrating with more formal traffic management systems.

KEY QUESTIONS FOR NEXT-GEN ITS IN 2012
Some of the key variables for 2012 will include:

• How will Reauthorization and continued budget shortfalls in all transportation arenas affect the innovation, realization and growth of next-gen ITS?
• Will mileage-based/usage-based (infrastructure-less) payment and tolling systems get a shot at a large scale deployment? The technology is in place, already being deployed by multiple insurance companies in numerous configurations. Test beds conducted by Oregon, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado and the I-95 Corridor Coalition, will provide insights to potential deployments and overall viability.
• Will the “Open Data” movement energize existing “Open Source” platforms – will Android and/or the Arduino platform (Open Source) make significant inroads into transportation, and provide a valued resource for Next-Gen ITS?
• What will be the lasting impacts on Next-Gen ITS with regards to the continued “flattening” of organizational hierarchy’s, the “consumerization” of the enterprise, and the “fragmentation” of the internet with regards to proliferation of mobile computing platforms?
• How will Next-Gen ITS begin to address the digital divide that exists technically, socially and economically? As consumerization continues to provide the foundation for next-gen ITS solutions, how will the non-technoliterate adapt and be provided for?
• Will there be a need for an update to the National ITS Architecture, as a result of the recent emergence of aforementioned technologies and solutions?

References and Resources
Microsoft Research – Predictive analytics for Traffic
Why Texting While Driving Bans Are the Wrong Solution Doomed to Fail
MIT’s Sensible City