Posts Tagged ‘Analytics’

A lot has been written about “big data” lately.  The rapid growth of varying data sources coupled with the enhanced density in data sources is establishing  a huge resource for transportation operators.  The rapid proliferation of data sources from new devices such as smartphones and other newly connected devices, in conjunction with the advancement of technologies for data collection and management have manifested a sizeable inflection point in the availability of data.  So what does this mean for ITS operators and the systems they currently manage?  What will be required to extract and leverage values associated with “big data”?

At First Glance

Federal regulations for performance measures and real-time monitoring associated with MAP-21 and 23 CFR 511 have implemented a framework for the increased need of new, refined data and information systems.  System enhancements will require improvements to existing networks and communications systems in order to optimize data and metadata flows between data sources and central applications. Robust central network equipment, including L3 switches, servers and storage will also be required.  Enhanced security measures  associated with new data sources and big data values will also need to be reviewed and attended to.  New central data warehouse infrastructure will also be required, including new database applications (such as Hadoop), that are capable of managing “big data” and the “Internet of Things” (IoT).

Deeper Dive

A closer look reveals additional layers of change required in order to begin abstracting value from the new data sources.  “Big data” will also require somewhat less obvious changes in the way transportation agencies currently do business.

Increased Data Management and Analytics Expertise –  The new data paradigm will require new staff skills, most notably, experience in data analytics (Quants).  Staff skills will not only require knowledge of the data available now or potentially available in the near term, but also understand transportation systems in order to apply the most beneficial data mining tactics available.  The new role must not only be aware of current data and information needs and values, but also be cognizant of what is capable, and potential hidden values currently unrealized or unknown by an operating agency.  The new role will also be an integral part of the development of embedded system features and be able to identify nuances in data meaning, as well as establish effective predictive analytics.

Policy and Digital Governance –  New data sources are also giving rise to discussion regarding privacy and liability.  Data sourced from private entities will always contend with privacy fears and concerns, at least for the near term, although recent analysis is showing a steady lessoning of those fears as “digital natives” begin to represent a greater percentage of the traveling public.  Data generated from sources outside of transportation agencies, but utilized by transportation agencies  for systems operations, can lead one to question who is responsible should data errors occur that might affect a system.

Networks and Communications – Data sources, formats and general data management practices will need extensive review of existing conditions. What values are attained from real-time, or near real-time collection from subsequent analytics, as well as determining what data is less time dependent.  Existing formats and protocols should also be included in the mapping exercise. For example, CV will require a mandatory upgrade of IP protocols from IPv4 to IPv6.  General planning regarding the utilization of “the cloud” need to be weighed for benefit-cost.  Third-party data brokers and other outsourcing alternatives such as cloud computing need to also be assessed.

Data Management and Analysis Tools – Operating entities also need to look at implementing data management tools (applications) that will assist in extracting value from large data sets.  These tools  should be integrated with core systems, and provide real-time metrics of collected data.  The tools should also provide the ability for “Cloud collaboration”, in order to process data stored by third parties, or general data stored in the cloud.

Wisdom Knowledge Information Data Pyramid

What to do

Transportation budgets are as tight as ever. How can operating agencies begin to make incremental steps towards the goal of realizing benefits associated with “big data”?  The first step is to begin now.  Start by mapping existing data sources to existing data management technologies, policies and processes, from end to end.  Also, widen your perspective and begin to look at possible benefits from a wide array of new data sources.  In addition, “open” it up, and benefit from the wisdom of the crowd.  New analytics skill sets should be considered a condition of certain new hires in the transportation and ITS planning departments.  A staff member should be designated for leading the way with decisions regarding “big data”, relationships with third party data brokers, cloud management, as well as be responsible for implementing an agile framework for next-gen data systems.

References and Resources
Developing a Data Management Program for Next-Gen ITS: A Primer for Mobility Managers
Big Data and Transport
TransDec: Big Data for Transportation
Update from the Data Liberation Front                                                                                           

As is the case with many technology-related market sectors today, next-generation transportation analytics is evolving with tremendous pace.  Newer transportation analytics are transitioning from first-generation “descriptive analytics”, which utilizes historical analysis of the transportation environment, to the use of “predictive” applications, which aggregate greater data sets and apply enhanced algorithms to generate forecasts for transportation systems.  The latest generation of transportation analytics now incorporates “prescriptive” analytics, where real-time, unique user-based solutions are developed.

Recently we’ve seen the emergence of predictive analytics take root in the transportation industry. To date, predictive analytics have predominantly focused on forecasting congestion patterns in support of trip and route planning, and utilized for the derivation of future travel time projections.  Predictive analytics move well beyond descriptive analytics by including the aggregation of larger, disparate data-sets including real-time and historical data, and data processing that includes laws of probability, statistical modeling, game theory and advanced analytic algorithms in order to generate estimated future conditions.

Predictive analytics are now including the human element, through the use of “social” algorithms such as “collaborative filtering”.  This process aggregates large, diverse data sets and applies advanced predictive analytics in order to generate tailored, unique end-user information.   This form of real-time predictive analytics model includes the integration of a wide range of user-based data in order to determine individual preferences, or unique user profiles. Collaborative filtering was first implemented in the internet community by such companies as eBay, Netflix and Amazon to predict user preferences and potential interest areas.  The best known example of collaborative filtering can be found in algorithms developed for the Netflix Prize.

Collaborative filtering techniques will become a valuable real-time analytic tool for the transportation community, as it begins to better define unique user-needs and gain the ability to generate higher resolution user profiles.  The wide-scale proliferation of data sources, including smartphone, vehicle and RFID, has greatly enhanced the data landscape in the transportation environment.  Algorithms will learn user preferences, trends, needs and constraints, build qualitative user profiles that are fused with real-time data and predictive analytics to generate tailored, individual traveler solutions.

Prescriptive analytics represent the leading edge of transportation analytics.  Prescriptive analytics take predictive analytics to the next level by generating solutions through the fusion of real-time situational awareness, unique individual end-user preferences and user profiles, with advanced analytics to generate solutions and recommendations on a user by user basis.  The combination of predictive and prescriptive analytics represent extremely powerful tools, more powerful than human capabilities, because of the wide range and volume of data and information aggregated and processed, and the advanced algorithms applied to the aggregated data sets.  Predictive and prescriptive analytics will also assist in removing the burden of “data overload” from the traveling public, by understanding unique user needs, generating individual traveler profiles and generating best-case transportation solutions on an individual user basis.

Next-gen transportation analytics will continue to model and forecast conditions for transportation systems.  Over time, these tools will provide a significant resource to the transportation industry.  New prescriptive analytics will provide valuable tools for transportation operations entities, as well as for the transportation end-user (traveler).  However, we are just moving beyond the first generation (descriptive) analytics and into the predictive analytics arena.  To date, predictive analytics have shown mixed results during their initial rollout.  For example, Google’s predictive travel time service was recently shut down, apparently due to inconsistencies and reliability issues.  Over time, these tools will only get better, but for now, the debate will continue regarding decision-grade predictive and prescriptive analytics and minimum reliability thresholds.

Further reading:
IBM Brings Watson-Like Sleuthing to Solve Traffic Crisis
http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2011/04/19/IBM-Smarter-Travel.aspx
Predictive Traffic More than Good Enough
http://blogs.strategyanalytics.com/AMCS/post/2011/07/27/INRIXs-$500M-post-funding-valuation-speaks-volumes-regarding-the-importance-of-predictive-traffic-data.aspx
Descriptive, Predictive, & Prescriptive analytics
http://managerialstats.blogspot.com/2011/03/descriptive-predictive-prescriptive.html